The Philosophy
How the model thinks
We don't hide behind “proprietary AI” black-box hand-waving. Here's exactly what we ingest, how we model it, and how we grade what comes out.
The pipeline
1 — Ingest
Every 15 minutes during game hours we pull odds from The Odds API, box scores from SportsDataIO, and weather from Open-Meteo. Everything is normalised against a canonical schedule of games.
2 — Model
For each player prop the engine builds a probability estimate from a weighted blend of recent form (35%), season averages (25%), opponent splits (20%), and last-10 performance (20%) — adjusted for matchup, home/away, fatigue, weather, and ballpark.
3 — Edge
We compare our model's probability against the sportsbook's implied probability (vig-adjusted). The difference is the edge. Positive edge = the market is mispricing this side.
4 — Grade
Edges are filtered through a confidence score (sample size, model agreement, splits coverage) and assigned a stadium-tier grade — Standing Room → Luxury Box.
5 — Surface
The picks page, props page, and notification system all read from the same graded predictions. Premium-tier users can also query everything through the AI chat assistant.
Data sources
We name the providers because transparency matters more than mystique.
The Odds API
Real-time and historical odds across every major U.S. sportsbook.
SportsDataIO
Box scores, player game logs, lineups, injuries, season splits.
Open-Meteo
Outdoor venue weather (temperature, wind speed/direction, precipitation).
MLB Statcast / NBA tracking / NHL play-by-play
Underlying performance metrics — exit velocity, on-court rating, shot-distance distributions.
The stadium-tier grading system
Every pick lands in one of six tiers. The thresholds are deterministic — no human curation, no after-the-fact reshuffling.
| Tier | Threshold | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Diamond Pick | Lux Score 95–100 | Elite edge with high confidence. Rare — typically a handful per slate. |
| Platinum Pick | Lux Score 85–94 | Strong edge with high conviction. Bread-and-butter premium plays. |
| Gold Pick | Lux Score 70–84 | Solid edge, playable with discipline. Volume tier for sized bankrolls. |
| Silver Pick | Lux Score 55–69 | Decent edge — value play for sized stakes with smaller unit sizing. |
| Bronze Pick | Lux Score 40–54 | Marginal edge — small stakes only. Information more than action. |
| Low | Lux Score below 40 | No edge or negative EV — avoid. Surfaced for transparency, not as a recommendation. |
Pro Tools
Five tools built on top of the same predictions pipeline. Tier-gated so the casual side of the app stays clean and the pro features pay for the data feeds that power them.
Arbitrage Finder
Cross-book mispricings where the best Over price at one book and the best Under at another sum to under 100% — locked-in profit either way. Stake split calculated for you.
Middle Finder
Two books, two different lines, one win-both window. We surface every positive-EV middle with the probability the result actually lands in the gap (sport-specific σ).
Alternate Lines
The standard line is just consensus. We score every alternate spread / total / prop the books quote and flag the ones where model probability beats implied price.
Money Flow
Bet % vs handle %, line movement, and a reverse-line-movement badge when the line drifts against the public — the cleanest signal sharps are taking the other side.
Bet Slip Image Generator
One-click branded share images of any pick or parlay (Instagram square + story formats). Your referral link bakes into every share — Luxury Box gets the gold premium template.
Things we're honest about
- No model is right every night. Even our highest-grade Luxury Box picks lose. Variance is real and the only way to know if an edge is real is sample size.
- Sample sizes get penalised. When a player has fewer than 10 games of recent data, confidence drops 30%. Fewer than 20, drops 15%. Models love data; we don't pretend we have it when we don't.
- Late-breaking news beats us. Last-minute scratches, lineup changes, and weather shifts don't always make it into a 15-minute refresh window. Always confirm at your sportsbook before placing.
- We publish our track record. Win rates, ROI, and sample sizes by sport and grade are available on the Track Record page — including bad streaks. Hiding those would be a red flag.